Dean's Professor of Economics · UC Irvine

William Branch

Expectations, learning, and restricted perceptions.

William Branch studies adaptive learning and model misspecification in macroeconomic models — work spanning monetary policy, asset pricing, stock-market bubbles, house prices, and unemployment. Research Affiliate of CESifo and the International Network on Expectational Coordination.

William Branch

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About

William Branch

William Branch

William Branch is the Dean's Professor of Economics at the University of California, Irvine. He is also a Research Affiliate of CESifo, the International Network on Expectational Coordination, the Institute of Mathematical Behavioral Sciences, and the Center for Economic and Public Policy.

His research focuses on adaptive learning, restricted perceptions, and model misspecification in macroeconomic models. Much of this work develops the restricted perceptions approach, in which agents forecast using simpler, misspecified models that are nonetheless optimal within a restricted class of beliefs. He has applied these ideas to monetary policy, monetary theory, asset pricing, stock-market bubbles and crashes, house prices, unemployment, business-cycle dynamics, and macroeconomic forecasting.

He serves as an Associate Editor at the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, and is a former Co-Editor of Economic Inquiry.
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01
Learning & expectations
Adaptive learning, restricted perceptions, and model misspecification.
2026Misspecification and the Restricted Perceptions Approach. — Working paper2026Identifying the Impact of Inflation Expectations. — Forthcoming, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics2022Statistical Sunspots. — Theoretical Economics2018Heterogeneous Expectations and Micro-foundations in Macroeconomics. — Handbook of Computational Economics, Vol. 42012Finite Horizon Learning. — Macroeconomics at the Service of Public Policy (OUP)2012Adaptive Learning in Regime-Switching Models. — Macroeconomic Dynamics2006Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation. — J. of Economic Theory2006Restricted Perceptions Equilibria and Learning in Macroeconomics. — Post-Walrasian Macroeconomics (Cambridge UP)2005Consistent Expectations and Misspecification in Stochastic Non-linear Economies. — J. of Economic Dynamics & Control2004The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations. — The Economic Journal
02
Monetary policy & theory
Inflation targets, policy design, and the foundations of money.
2026Endogenously (Non-)Ricardian Beliefs. — Forthcoming, International Economic Review2017Unstable Inflation Targets. — J. of Money, Credit and Banking2015Imperfect Knowledge, Liquidity, and Bubbles. — J. of Economic Dynamics & Control2011Monetary Policy and Heterogeneous Expectations. — Economic Theory2010Dynamic Predictor Selection in a New Keynesian Model with Heterogeneous Expectations. — J. of Economic Dynamics & Control2009A New Keynesian Model with Heterogeneous Expectations. — J. of Economic Dynamics & Control2009Monetary Policy, Endogenous Inattention, and the Volatility Tradeoff. — The Economic Journal2008Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions under Implementable Monetary Policy Rules. — J. of Money, Credit and Banking2007Sticky Information and Model Uncertainty in Survey Data on Inflation Expectations. — J. of Economic Dynamics & Control
03
Survey expectations & learning
Expectation formation, forecasting, and adaptive learning in survey data.
2026Identifying the Impact of Inflation Expectations. — Forthcoming, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics2013Nowcasting and the Taylor Rule. — J. of Money, Credit and Banking2007Sticky Information and Model Uncertainty in Survey Data on Inflation Expectations. — J. of Economic Dynamics & Control2006A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model. — Economics Letters2004The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations. — The Economic Journal
04
Asset pricing & bubbles
Stock-market bubbles, crashes, and heterogeneous beliefs.
2016Heterogeneous Beliefs and Trading Inefficiencies. — J. of Economic Theory2015Imperfect Knowledge, Liquidity, and Bubbles. — J. of Economic Dynamics & Control2013Bubbles, Crashes, and Risk. — Economics Letters2011Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes. — American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics2010Asset Return Dynamics and Learning. — Review of Financial Studies2007Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility. — Review of Economic Dynamics
05
Business cycles
Expectations-driven fluctuations and macro dynamics.
2011Business Cycle Amplification with Heterogeneous Expectations. — Economic Theory2008Replicator Dynamics in a Cobweb Model with Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations. — J. of Economic Behavior & Organization2002Local Convergence Properties of a Cobweb Model with Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations. — J. of Economic Dynamics & Control
06
Forecasting
Macroeconomic forecasting under learning and misspecification.
2013Nowcasting and the Taylor Rule. — J. of Money, Credit and Banking2007Sticky Information and Model Uncertainty in Survey Data on Inflation Expectations. — J. of Economic Dynamics & Control2006A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model. — Economics Letters
07
Housing & unemployment
Financial frictions, house prices, and labor-market dynamics.
2022Liquidity, Unemployment, and the Stock Market. — Working paper2016Financial Frictions, the Housing Market, and Unemployment. — J. of Economic Theory
Contact

Get in touch

Email
wbranch@uci.edu
Phone
(949) 824-4221
Mailing address
Department of Economics
University of California, Irvine
3151 Social Science Plaza
Irvine, CA 92697-5100